Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/620143
Title:
Evaluation of flood forecasting-response systems
Author:
Krzysztofowicz, Roman
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona; Department of Systems and Industrial Engineering, The University of Arizona
Publisher:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)
Issue Date:
1978-01
Rights:
Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents
Collection Information:
This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
Abstract:
The value of a forecast system in preventing urban property damage depends on the accuracy of the forecasts, the time at which they are received, the response by the floodplain dweller and the êfficacy of that response. A systems model of the overall flood forecast -response system is developed. Evaluation of the system is accomplished by a decision theoretic methodology. A case study is done for Milton, Pennsylvania, which evaluates the present system and potential changes to it. It is concluded that the sequential nature of the forecast sequence must be considered in modeling the flood forecast -response system if a meaningful evaluation of the economic value of the system is to be obtained. Methodology for obtaining the parameterization of the model from the available data is given. Computer programs have been written to handle a good portion of the calculations. While more work is needed on obtaining accurate parameterization of certain parts of the model, such as the actual response to forecasts; use of the procedures and programs as they now stand produces reasonable evaluations.
Description:
Report to Hydrology Laboratory, Office of Hydrology, National Weather Service, NOAH, Dept. of Commerce, Contract 6 -35229
Keywords:
Flood forecasting -- Decision making.; Flood forecasting -- Mathematical models.; Markov processes.
Series/Report no.:
Technical Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 29

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorKrzysztofowicz, Romanen
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-15T02:03:25Z-
dc.date.available2016-09-15T02:03:25Z-
dc.date.issued1978-01-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/620143-
dc.descriptionReport to Hydrology Laboratory, Office of Hydrology, National Weather Service, NOAH, Dept. of Commerce, Contract 6 -35229en
dc.description.abstractThe value of a forecast system in preventing urban property damage depends on the accuracy of the forecasts, the time at which they are received, the response by the floodplain dweller and the êfficacy of that response. A systems model of the overall flood forecast -response system is developed. Evaluation of the system is accomplished by a decision theoretic methodology. A case study is done for Milton, Pennsylvania, which evaluates the present system and potential changes to it. It is concluded that the sequential nature of the forecast sequence must be considered in modeling the flood forecast -response system if a meaningful evaluation of the economic value of the system is to be obtained. Methodology for obtaining the parameterization of the model from the available data is given. Computer programs have been written to handle a good portion of the calculations. While more work is needed on obtaining accurate parameterization of certain parts of the model, such as the actual response to forecasts; use of the procedures and programs as they now stand produces reasonable evaluations.en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTechnical Reports on Natural Resource Systems, No. 29en
dc.rightsCopyright © Arizona Board of Regentsen
dc.sourceProvided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources.en
dc.subjectFlood forecasting -- Decision making.en
dc.subjectFlood forecasting -- Mathematical models.en
dc.subjectMarkov processes.en
dc.titleEvaluation of flood forecasting-response systemsen_US
dc.typetexten
dc.typeTechnical Reporten
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizonaen
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Systems and Industrial Engineering, The University of Arizonaen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
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