Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/620101
Title:
HYDROLOGIC MODEL SELECTION IN A DECISION MAKING CONTEXT
Author:
Lovell, Robert Edmund
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona
Publisher:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)
Issue Date:
1975-06
Rights:
Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents
Collection Information:
This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
Abstract:
The problem of selecting appropriate mathematical models for use in studying hydrological phenomena has created a situation in which the choice of suitable models by hydrologic practitioners has become exceedingly complex. The extensive comments in the literature indicate that neither the traditional system of technical journals nor the more modern computer -based retrieval schemes have really solved the problem. Further examination shows that similar problems have arisen in many fields, hence a well organized attack on the specific problem of hydrologic model choice can have a more general application. The present problem is identified as a requirement to codify and make accessible to users information in a more directly user oriented format. The problem of model choice arises at several levels, ranging from decision on what fundamental structure to use, to choice of parameters, and on to model calibration and validation. This paper is focused on a scheme to aid in model structure choice. The essential ingredients of model structure choice, and indeed of many choice processes, are extracted and embedded in a generalized set theoretic mathematical notational framework in order to give some insight into the nature of the problem. Within this framework the specialized features of the model choice problem are analyzed, and a specialized model is developed for assisting in model choice and all problems similarly situated. These considerations lead to the development of a finite vector of objective statements with codified responses prepared by a panel of qualified researchers who are willing and able to construct the essential information in a user oriented format. It is required that the panel not only couch their information in objective oriented terms but that they also generate value judgments for the individual components. In this way, those using the system can take advantage of the expert opinions embedded in the model while, at the same time, tailoring the choice to meet their own specific needs and aspirations. This results in what is defined as a mathematical CHOICEMODEL. The implementation of a system for interactive computation of the CHOICEMODEL is described in detail, and the associated computer programs are presented in appendices. A detailed instruction manual is given, and the implementation of the method is illustrated by an easily understood model of the ingredients of the problem of selecting an 8 -track stereo tape deck for home use. The plan is outlined whereby hydrologic choice models can be developed within the CHOICEMODEL system by a selected panel of expert EVALUATORs.
Keywords:
Hydrologic models.; Decision making
Series/Report no.:
Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 26
Sponsors:
This study was supported principally by funds from the Title II research grant on model choice questions in hydrology and water resources by the Office of Water Resources Research, U.S. Department of the Interior.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorLovell, Robert Edmunden
dc.date.accessioned2016-09-13T22:21:26Z-
dc.date.available2016-09-13T22:21:26Z-
dc.date.issued1975-06-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/620101-
dc.description.abstractThe problem of selecting appropriate mathematical models for use in studying hydrological phenomena has created a situation in which the choice of suitable models by hydrologic practitioners has become exceedingly complex. The extensive comments in the literature indicate that neither the traditional system of technical journals nor the more modern computer -based retrieval schemes have really solved the problem. Further examination shows that similar problems have arisen in many fields, hence a well organized attack on the specific problem of hydrologic model choice can have a more general application. The present problem is identified as a requirement to codify and make accessible to users information in a more directly user oriented format. The problem of model choice arises at several levels, ranging from decision on what fundamental structure to use, to choice of parameters, and on to model calibration and validation. This paper is focused on a scheme to aid in model structure choice. The essential ingredients of model structure choice, and indeed of many choice processes, are extracted and embedded in a generalized set theoretic mathematical notational framework in order to give some insight into the nature of the problem. Within this framework the specialized features of the model choice problem are analyzed, and a specialized model is developed for assisting in model choice and all problems similarly situated. These considerations lead to the development of a finite vector of objective statements with codified responses prepared by a panel of qualified researchers who are willing and able to construct the essential information in a user oriented format. It is required that the panel not only couch their information in objective oriented terms but that they also generate value judgments for the individual components. In this way, those using the system can take advantage of the expert opinions embedded in the model while, at the same time, tailoring the choice to meet their own specific needs and aspirations. This results in what is defined as a mathematical CHOICEMODEL. The implementation of a system for interactive computation of the CHOICEMODEL is described in detail, and the associated computer programs are presented in appendices. A detailed instruction manual is given, and the implementation of the method is illustrated by an easily understood model of the ingredients of the problem of selecting an 8 -track stereo tape deck for home use. The plan is outlined whereby hydrologic choice models can be developed within the CHOICEMODEL system by a selected panel of expert EVALUATORs.en
dc.description.sponsorshipThis study was supported principally by funds from the Title II research grant on model choice questions in hydrology and water resources by the Office of Water Resources Research, U.S. Department of the Interior.en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTechnical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 26en
dc.rightsCopyright © Arizona Board of Regentsen
dc.sourceProvided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources.en
dc.subjectHydrologic models.en
dc.subjectDecision makingen
dc.titleHYDROLOGIC MODEL SELECTION IN A DECISION MAKING CONTEXTen_US
dc.typetexten
dc.typeTechnical Reporten
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizonaen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
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