Advances in seasonal forecasting for water management in Arizona: a case study of the 1997-98 El Niño

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/615777
Title:
Advances in seasonal forecasting for water management in Arizona: a case study of the 1997-98 El Niño
Author:
Pagano, Thomas; Hartmann, Holly; Sorooshian, Soroosh; Bales, Roger
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona
Publisher:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)
Issue Date:
1999-11
Rights:
Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents
Collection Information:
This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
Abstract:
This 1997-98 El Niño provided a unique opportunity for climate information and forecasts to be utilized by water management agencies in the Southwestern U.S. While Arizona has experienced high streamflow associated with previous El Niño events, never before had an event of such magnitude been predicted with advance warning of several months. Likewise, the availability of information, including Internet sources and widespread media coverage, was higher than ever before. Insights about use of this information in operational water management decision processes are developed through a series of semi -structured in -depth interviews with key personnel from a broad array of agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply, with jurisdictions ranging from urban to rural and local to regional. The interviews investigate where information was acquired, how it was interpreted and how it was incorporated into specific decisions and actions. The interviews also investigate agency satisfaction with the products available to them, their operational decisions, and intentions to utilize forecast products in the future. Study findings lead to recommendations about how to more effectively provide intended users of forecasts with information required to enact mitigation measures and utilize opportunities that some climatic events present. The material presented in this report is primarily based on the Masters Thesis of Thomas Pagano.
Series/Report no.:
Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 99-040
Sponsors:
It is a pleasure to recognize the individuals who have contributed to this research. This was very much a group effort and the assistance of others was invaluable. We owe thanks to our scientific colleagues Roy Koch, Kelly Redmond, Ed Miles, Bob Maddox, John Dracup, Tom Piechota, Chet Ropelewski, Jim Shuttleworth, Gary Woodard, Michael Bradley and Andrew Comrie. Additional thanks are extended to the Southwest Climate Assessment Project (especially Barbara Morehouse, Diana Liverman, Hallie Eakin, and others) for their training, advice and supervision. We appreciate their support and the time that individuals took to provide comments on this study's questionnaire through its many revisions. The Tucson and Phoenix National Weather Service meteorologists (especially Tony Haffer) were extremely helpful in many ways. We are indebted to Ray Brice, Dan Braithwaite and James Broermann for their help in computer support. Thomas Pagano personally thanks Erin Clark for her support. Several individuals provided historical forecasts and observation datasets for this study: Shirley Francisco, Dallas Reigle, Douglas Ufkes, Richard Clayton, David Unger, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. We gratefully acknowledge the cooperation and assistance of each study participant, as well the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, all at the University of Arizona. Financial support was provided by NASA/EOS Grant #OSSAA/ 88, NOAA Office of Global Programs Grant #NA86GP0061, the NSF Graduate Research Traineeship, UA College of Engineering and Mines Dean's Fund, and SRP Fellowship.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorPagano, Thomasen
dc.contributor.authorHartmann, Hollyen
dc.contributor.authorSorooshian, Sorooshen
dc.contributor.authorBales, Rogeren
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-08T00:12:21Z-
dc.date.available2016-07-08T00:12:21Z-
dc.date.issued1999-11-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/615777-
dc.description.abstractThis 1997-98 El Niño provided a unique opportunity for climate information and forecasts to be utilized by water management agencies in the Southwestern U.S. While Arizona has experienced high streamflow associated with previous El Niño events, never before had an event of such magnitude been predicted with advance warning of several months. Likewise, the availability of information, including Internet sources and widespread media coverage, was higher than ever before. Insights about use of this information in operational water management decision processes are developed through a series of semi -structured in -depth interviews with key personnel from a broad array of agencies responsible for emergency management and water supply, with jurisdictions ranging from urban to rural and local to regional. The interviews investigate where information was acquired, how it was interpreted and how it was incorporated into specific decisions and actions. The interviews also investigate agency satisfaction with the products available to them, their operational decisions, and intentions to utilize forecast products in the future. Study findings lead to recommendations about how to more effectively provide intended users of forecasts with information required to enact mitigation measures and utilize opportunities that some climatic events present. The material presented in this report is primarily based on the Masters Thesis of Thomas Pagano.en
dc.description.sponsorshipIt is a pleasure to recognize the individuals who have contributed to this research. This was very much a group effort and the assistance of others was invaluable. We owe thanks to our scientific colleagues Roy Koch, Kelly Redmond, Ed Miles, Bob Maddox, John Dracup, Tom Piechota, Chet Ropelewski, Jim Shuttleworth, Gary Woodard, Michael Bradley and Andrew Comrie. Additional thanks are extended to the Southwest Climate Assessment Project (especially Barbara Morehouse, Diana Liverman, Hallie Eakin, and others) for their training, advice and supervision. We appreciate their support and the time that individuals took to provide comments on this study's questionnaire through its many revisions. The Tucson and Phoenix National Weather Service meteorologists (especially Tony Haffer) were extremely helpful in many ways. We are indebted to Ray Brice, Dan Braithwaite and James Broermann for their help in computer support. Thomas Pagano personally thanks Erin Clark for her support. Several individuals provided historical forecasts and observation datasets for this study: Shirley Francisco, Dallas Reigle, Douglas Ufkes, Richard Clayton, David Unger, and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. We gratefully acknowledge the cooperation and assistance of each study participant, as well the Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, and Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest, all at the University of Arizona. Financial support was provided by NASA/EOS Grant #OSSAA/ 88, NOAA Office of Global Programs Grant #NA86GP0061, the NSF Graduate Research Traineeship, UA College of Engineering and Mines Dean's Fund, and SRP Fellowship.en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTechnical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 99-040en
dc.rightsCopyright © Arizona Board of Regentsen
dc.sourceProvided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources.en
dc.titleAdvances in seasonal forecasting for water management in Arizona: a case study of the 1997-98 El Niñoen_US
dc.typetexten
dc.typeTechnical Reporten
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizonaen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
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