A multi-step automatic calibration scheme (MACS) for river forecasting models utilizing the national weather service river forecast system (NWSRFS)

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/615749
Title:
A multi-step automatic calibration scheme (MACS) for river forecasting models utilizing the national weather service river forecast system (NWSRFS)
Author:
Sorooshian, Soroosh; Gupta, Hoshin; Hogue, Terri S.; Holz, Andrea; Braatz, Dean
Affiliation:
Department of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizona
Publisher:
Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)
Issue Date:
1999-10
Rights:
Copyright © Arizona Board of Regents
Collection Information:
This title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
Abstract:
Traditional model calibration by National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC) hydrologists involves a laborious and time -consuming manual estimation of numerous parameters. The National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWSRFS), a software system used by the RFCs for hydrologic forecasting, includes an automatic optimization program (OPT3) to aid in model calibration. The OPT3 program is not used operationally by the majority of RFC hydrologists who perform calibration studies. Lack of success with the traditional single - step, single-criterion automatic calibration approach has left hydrologists more comfortable employing a manual step-by-step process to estimate parameters. This study develops a Multistep Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS), utilizing OPT3, for the river forecasting models used by the RFCs: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA). and SNOW-17 models. Sixteen parameters are calibrated in three steps, replicating the progression of manual calibration steps used by NWS hydrologists. MACS is developed by minimizing different objective functions for different parameters in a step -wise manner. Model runs are compared using the MACS optimized parameters and the manually estimated parameters for six basins in the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) forecast area. Results demonstrate that the parameters obtained via the MACS procedure generally yield better model performance than those obtained by manual calibration. The MACS methodology is a time-saving approach that can provide prompt model forecasts for NWS watersheds.
Description:
Final Report to the Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service Grant NA #87WHO582
Series/Report no.:
Technical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 99-010
Sponsors:
Partial financial support for this research was provided by the Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service (Grant NA #87WHO582) and the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Trainee Program (Grant # DGE-9355029 #3).

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorSorooshian, Sorooshen
dc.contributor.authorGupta, Hoshinen
dc.contributor.authorHogue, Terri S.en
dc.contributor.authorHolz, Andreaen
dc.contributor.authorBraatz, Deanen
dc.date.accessioned2016-07-07T22:48:40Z-
dc.date.available2016-07-07T22:48:40Z-
dc.date.issued1999-10-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/615749-
dc.descriptionFinal Report to the Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service Grant NA #87WHO582en
dc.description.abstractTraditional model calibration by National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Center (RFC) hydrologists involves a laborious and time -consuming manual estimation of numerous parameters. The National Weather Service River Forecasting System (NWSRFS), a software system used by the RFCs for hydrologic forecasting, includes an automatic optimization program (OPT3) to aid in model calibration. The OPT3 program is not used operationally by the majority of RFC hydrologists who perform calibration studies. Lack of success with the traditional single - step, single-criterion automatic calibration approach has left hydrologists more comfortable employing a manual step-by-step process to estimate parameters. This study develops a Multistep Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS), utilizing OPT3, for the river forecasting models used by the RFCs: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA). and SNOW-17 models. Sixteen parameters are calibrated in three steps, replicating the progression of manual calibration steps used by NWS hydrologists. MACS is developed by minimizing different objective functions for different parameters in a step -wise manner. Model runs are compared using the MACS optimized parameters and the manually estimated parameters for six basins in the North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) forecast area. Results demonstrate that the parameters obtained via the MACS procedure generally yield better model performance than those obtained by manual calibration. The MACS methodology is a time-saving approach that can provide prompt model forecasts for NWS watersheds.en
dc.description.sponsorshipPartial financial support for this research was provided by the Hydrologic Research Laboratory of the National Weather Service (Grant NA #87WHO582) and the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Trainee Program (Grant # DGE-9355029 #3).en
dc.language.isoen_USen
dc.publisherDepartment of Hydrology and Water Resources, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ)en
dc.relation.ispartofseriesTechnical Reports on Hydrology and Water Resources, No. 99-010en
dc.rightsCopyright © Arizona Board of Regentsen
dc.sourceProvided by the Department of Hydrology and Water Resources.en
dc.titleA multi-step automatic calibration scheme (MACS) for river forecasting models utilizing the national weather service river forecast system (NWSRFS)en_US
dc.typetexten
dc.typeTechnical Reporten
dc.contributor.departmentDepartment of Hydrology & Water Resources, The University of Arizonaen
dc.description.collectioninformationThis title from the Hydrology & Water Resources Technical Reports collection is made available by the Department of Hydrology & Atmospheric Sciences and the University Libraries, University of Arizona. If you have questions about titles in this collection, please contact repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
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