Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/614733
Title:
Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods
Author:
Mann, Michael E.; Steinman, Byron A.; Miller, Sonya K.; Frankcombe, Leela M.; England, Matthew H.; Cheung, Anson H.
Affiliation:
Univ Arizona, Dept Geosci
Issue Date:
2016-04-16
Publisher:
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
Citation:
Predictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods 2016, 43 (7):3459 Geophysical Research Letters
Journal:
Geophysical Research Letters
Rights:
©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved
Collection Information:
This item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.
Abstract:
The temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.
Note:
EMBARGO "Publisher's version/PDF must be used in Institutional Repository 6 months after publication."
ISSN:
00948276
DOI:
10.1002/2016GL068159
Keywords:
NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE; CLIMATE VARIABILITY; HIATUS; ATLANTIC; PACIFIC; TEMPERATURE; PREDICTION
Version:
Final published version
Sponsors:
All raw data, (c) Matlab code, and results from our analysis are available at the supplementary website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/supplements/GRL2016. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. B.A.S. acknowledges support by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048). M.H.E. and L.M.F. acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (FL100100214). A.H.C. acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1263225). Kaplan SST V2 data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. HadISST data were provided by theMet Office Hadley Centre: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs. ERSST data were provided by NOAA:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b.
Additional Links:
http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL068159

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorMann, Michael E.en
dc.contributor.authorSteinman, Byron A.en
dc.contributor.authorMiller, Sonya K.en
dc.contributor.authorFrankcombe, Leela M.en
dc.contributor.authorEngland, Matthew H.en
dc.contributor.authorCheung, Anson H.en
dc.date.accessioned2016-06-24T22:18:33Z-
dc.date.available2016-06-24T22:18:33Z-
dc.date.issued2016-04-16-
dc.identifier.citationPredictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methods 2016, 43 (7):3459 Geophysical Research Lettersen
dc.identifier.issn00948276-
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/2016GL068159-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/614733-
dc.description.abstractThe temporary slowdown in large-scale surface warming during the early 2000s has been attributed to both external and internal sources of climate variability. Using semiempirical estimates of the internal low-frequency variability component in Northern Hemisphere, Atlantic, and Pacific surface temperatures in concert with statistical hindcast experiments, we investigate whether the slowdown and its recent recovery were predictable. We conclude that the internal variability of the North Pacific, which played a critical role in the slowdown, does not appear to have been predictable using statistical forecast methods. An additional minor contribution from the North Atlantic, by contrast, appears to exhibit some predictability. While our analyses focus on combining semiempirical estimates of internal climatic variability with statistical hindcast experiments, possible implications for initialized model predictions are also discussed.en
dc.description.sponsorshipAll raw data, (c) Matlab code, and results from our analysis are available at the supplementary website: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~mann/supplements/GRL2016. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. B.A.S. acknowledges support by the U.S. National Science Foundation (EAR-1447048). M.H.E. and L.M.F. acknowledge support from the Australian Research Council (FL100100214). A.H.C. acknowledges support from the U.S. National Science Foundation (AGS-1263225). Kaplan SST V2 data were provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their Web site at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. HadISST data were provided by theMet Office Hadley Centre: www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs. ERSST data were provided by NOAA:www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/marineocean-data/extended-reconstructed-sea-surface-temperature-ersst-v3b.en
dc.language.isoenen
dc.publisherAMER GEOPHYSICAL UNIONen
dc.relation.urlhttp://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/2016GL068159en
dc.rights©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserveden
dc.subjectNORTHERN-HEMISPHEREen
dc.subjectCLIMATE VARIABILITYen
dc.subjectHIATUSen
dc.subjectATLANTICen
dc.subjectPACIFICen
dc.subjectTEMPERATUREen
dc.subjectPREDICTIONen
dc.titlePredictability of the recent slowdown and subsequent recovery of large-scale surface warming using statistical methodsen
dc.typeArticleen
dc.contributor.departmentUniv Arizona, Dept Geoscien
dc.identifier.journalGeophysical Research Lettersen
dc.description.noteEMBARGO "Publisher's version/PDF must be used in Institutional Repository 6 months after publication."en
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item from the UA Faculty Publications collection is made available by the University of Arizona with support from the University of Arizona Libraries. If you have questions, please contact us at repository@u.library.arizona.edu.en
dc.eprint.versionFinal published versionen
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute; Pennsylvania State University; University Park Pennsylvania USA-
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Earth and Environmental Sciences and Large Lakes Observatory; University of Minnesota Duluth; Duluth Minnesota USA-
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Meteorology and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute; Pennsylvania State University; University Park Pennsylvania USA-
dc.contributor.institutionARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales; Sydney New South Wales Australia-
dc.contributor.institutionARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science; University of New South Wales; Sydney New South Wales Australia-
dc.contributor.institutionDepartment of Geosciences; University of Arizona; Tucson Arizona USA-
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