Evaluating Propect Theory as a Model to Predict Risk-taking in International Relations

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/297521
Title:
Evaluating Propect Theory as a Model to Predict Risk-taking in International Relations
Author:
Carlson, Drew Gregory
Issue Date:
2013
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Causes of risk-taking behavior have been studied extensively in the social sciences. Research in psychology and economics in particular has contributed to a re-evaluation of how actors approach the topic of risk in international relations. Presented here is an evaluation of both the current literature base on risk in global politics and new findings and analysis. Specifically, this paper focuses on the potential of prospect theory to explain risky actions. The current literature is very strong in providing case studies that examine specific instances of risk-taking, but contains few attempts that address the entire system. Therefore, a logistical regression model was used to test the ability of prospect theory and more traditional theories to predict risky actions. The data indicates that the causes of risky actions depend upon how risk those actions are. Fairly risky military mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of relative military power, while extremely risky mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of domestic prosperity. This paper examines why this might be the case, and concludes that while difficult to quantify properly, prospect theory has great potential to explain behavior in international politics.
Type:
text; Electronic Thesis
Degree Name:
B.A.
Degree Level:
bachelors
Degree Program:
Honors College; Political Science
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Volgy, Thomas

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleEvaluating Propect Theory as a Model to Predict Risk-taking in International Relationsen_US
dc.creatorCarlson, Drew Gregoryen_US
dc.contributor.authorCarlson, Drew Gregoryen_US
dc.date.issued2013-
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractCauses of risk-taking behavior have been studied extensively in the social sciences. Research in psychology and economics in particular has contributed to a re-evaluation of how actors approach the topic of risk in international relations. Presented here is an evaluation of both the current literature base on risk in global politics and new findings and analysis. Specifically, this paper focuses on the potential of prospect theory to explain risky actions. The current literature is very strong in providing case studies that examine specific instances of risk-taking, but contains few attempts that address the entire system. Therefore, a logistical regression model was used to test the ability of prospect theory and more traditional theories to predict risky actions. The data indicates that the causes of risky actions depend upon how risk those actions are. Fairly risky military mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of relative military power, while extremely risky mobilizations appear to be caused by the loss of domestic prosperity. This paper examines why this might be the case, and concludes that while difficult to quantify properly, prospect theory has great potential to explain behavior in international politics.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeElectronic Thesisen_US
thesis.degree.nameB.A.en_US
thesis.degree.levelbachelorsen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHonors Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplinePolitical Scienceen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorVolgy, Thomas-
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