Evaluating bias in models for predicting emergency vehicle busy probabilities

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/291541
Title:
Evaluating bias in models for predicting emergency vehicle busy probabilities
Author:
Benitez Auza, Ricardo Ariel, 1964-
Issue Date:
1990
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
In this thesis we discuss three models that are used to estimate vehicle busy probabilities when call service time depends on call location and the serving vehicle. The first model requires an assumption that each vehicle operates independently of the other vehicles. The second model approximately corrects for the independence assumption. The third model also approximately corrects for the independence assumption, however it assumes that all vehicles have an equal busy probability. We evaluate model bias by comparing the estimates from each model with estimates from a simulation model. We use extremely long runs to ensure that the simulation is both accurate and precise. Our results suggest that the model using the independence assumption performs poorly as the system utilization increases. The correction models, however, perform well over a wide range of system sizes and utilizations. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)
Type:
text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Health Sciences, Health Care Management.; Operations Research.
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Graduate College; Systems and Industrial Engineering
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Goldberg, Jeffrey

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleEvaluating bias in models for predicting emergency vehicle busy probabilitiesen_US
dc.creatorBenitez Auza, Ricardo Ariel, 1964-en_US
dc.contributor.authorBenitez Auza, Ricardo Ariel, 1964-en_US
dc.date.issued1990en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractIn this thesis we discuss three models that are used to estimate vehicle busy probabilities when call service time depends on call location and the serving vehicle. The first model requires an assumption that each vehicle operates independently of the other vehicles. The second model approximately corrects for the independence assumption. The third model also approximately corrects for the independence assumption, however it assumes that all vehicles have an equal busy probability. We evaluate model bias by comparing the estimates from each model with estimates from a simulation model. We use extremely long runs to ensure that the simulation is both accurate and precise. Our results suggest that the model using the independence assumption performs poorly as the system utilization increases. The correction models, however, perform well over a wide range of system sizes and utilizations. (Abstract shortened with permission of author.)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectHealth Sciences, Health Care Management.en_US
dc.subjectOperations Research.en_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems and Industrial Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorGoldberg, Jeffreyen_US
dc.identifier.proquest1342000en_US
dc.identifier.bibrecord.b26475224en_US
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