Short-term mesoscale ensemble forecasts of precipitation for Arizona during the monsoon

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/279877
Title:
Short-term mesoscale ensemble forecasts of precipitation for Arizona during the monsoon
Author:
Bright, David Roy
Issue Date:
2001
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
The quality of MM5 ensembles is evaluated for short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over Arizona during the Southwest monsoon. The sensitivity of different ensemble constructs is examined with respect to analysis uncertainty, model parameterization uncertainty, and a combination of both. Model uncertainty is addressed through different cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and through stochastic forcing representative of a component of subgrid-scale uncertainty. A first-order autoregression model adds a stochastic perturbation to the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and MRF planetary boundary layer scheme. A sensitivity study is also conducted to determine the MM5 planetary boundary layer parameterizations capable of simulating the structure of the pre-convective, monsoon atmospheric boundary layer. The results indicate that ensemble precipitation forecasts are skillful and may assist operational weather forecasters during the monsoon. The most skillful ensembles contain both analysis perturbations and mixed-model physics. The Blackadar or MRF planetary boundary layer schemes are recommended for MM5 simulations or forecasts of the Southwest monsoon.
Type:
text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Hydrology.; Physics, Atmospheric Science.
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Graduate College; Atmospheric Sciences
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Mullen, Steven L.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleShort-term mesoscale ensemble forecasts of precipitation for Arizona during the monsoonen_US
dc.creatorBright, David Royen_US
dc.contributor.authorBright, David Royen_US
dc.date.issued2001en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe quality of MM5 ensembles is evaluated for short-range probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts over Arizona during the Southwest monsoon. The sensitivity of different ensemble constructs is examined with respect to analysis uncertainty, model parameterization uncertainty, and a combination of both. Model uncertainty is addressed through different cumulus and planetary boundary layer parameterizations, and through stochastic forcing representative of a component of subgrid-scale uncertainty. A first-order autoregression model adds a stochastic perturbation to the Kain-Fritsch cumulus scheme and MRF planetary boundary layer scheme. A sensitivity study is also conducted to determine the MM5 planetary boundary layer parameterizations capable of simulating the structure of the pre-convective, monsoon atmospheric boundary layer. The results indicate that ensemble precipitation forecasts are skillful and may assist operational weather forecasters during the monsoon. The most skillful ensembles contain both analysis perturbations and mixed-model physics. The Blackadar or MRF planetary boundary layer schemes are recommended for MM5 simulations or forecasts of the Southwest monsoon.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectHydrology.en_US
dc.subjectPhysics, Atmospheric Science.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineAtmospheric Sciencesen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorMullen, Steven L.en_US
dc.identifier.proquest3031389en_US
dc.identifier.bibrecord.b42286669en_US
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