Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/276454
Title:
TYPE OF EVIDENCE AS A BASIS FOR COMBINING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES
Author:
Deyoe, Kelly Joseph, 1957-
Issue Date:
1987
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Two models for aggregating subjective probabilities are presented. One employs a multiplicative rule and the other a weighted average. The choice of a model is based on the type of evidence upon which the subjective probabilities were estimated. An experiment was developed to determine if people are sensitive to this difference in the type of evidence when combining subjective probabilities. Two other variables tested were the tense of the event and the experience of the subject with the use of probabilities. The type of evidence presented had an effect on the combination rule employed, whereas tense of the event did not. The naive and expert subjects approached the problems differently. An order effect due to the presentation order of the evidence within a problem was found. A momentum tendency, which may explain the order effect, was present in the expert subjects. Further research on combining subjective probabilities is indicated.
Type:
text; Thesis-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Probabilities.; Probabilities -- Methodology.
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Graduate College; Systems and Industrial Engineering
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleTYPE OF EVIDENCE AS A BASIS FOR COMBINING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIESen_US
dc.creatorDeyoe, Kelly Joseph, 1957-en_US
dc.contributor.authorDeyoe, Kelly Joseph, 1957-en_US
dc.date.issued1987en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractTwo models for aggregating subjective probabilities are presented. One employs a multiplicative rule and the other a weighted average. The choice of a model is based on the type of evidence upon which the subjective probabilities were estimated. An experiment was developed to determine if people are sensitive to this difference in the type of evidence when combining subjective probabilities. Two other variables tested were the tense of the event and the experience of the subject with the use of probabilities. The type of evidence presented had an effect on the combination rule employed, whereas tense of the event did not. The naive and expert subjects approached the problems differently. An order effect due to the presentation order of the evidence within a problem was found. A momentum tendency, which may explain the order effect, was present in the expert subjects. Further research on combining subjective probabilities is indicated.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectProbabilities.en_US
dc.subjectProbabilities -- Methodology.en_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems and Industrial Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.identifier.proquest1331396en_US
dc.identifier.oclc17758072en_US
dc.identifier.bibrecord.b16377382en_US
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