Conditional Probability of Occurrence for Variations in Climate Based on Width of Annual Tree-Rings in Arizona

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/259995
Title:
Conditional Probability of Occurrence for Variations in Climate Based on Width of Annual Tree-Rings in Arizona
Author:
Stockton, Charles W.; Fritts, Harold C.
Affiliation:
Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizona
Issue Date:
1971
Rights:
Copyright © Tree-Ring Society. All rights reserved.
Collection Information:
This item is part of the Tree-Ring Research (formerly Tree-Ring Bulletin) archive. It was digitized from a physical copy provided by the Laboratory of Tree-Ring research at The University of Arizona. For more information about this peer-reviewed scholarly journal, please email the Editor of Tree-Ring Research at editor@treeringsociety.org.
Publisher:
Tree-Ring Society
Journal:
Tree-Ring Bulletin
Citation:
Stockton, C.W., Fritts, H.C. 1971. Conditional probability of occurrence for variations in climate based on the width of annual tree rings in Arizona. Tree-Ring Bulletin 31:3-24.
Abstract:
A method is presented for making probability statements about past climatic conditions for the state of Arizona given the corresponding relative width of tree rings. The probability statements about periods of extreme climate from 1650 to 1899 are based upon the joint occurrence of the state-wide average seasonal climate and ring widths during 1899-1957. The ring-width values used are index chronologies selected from four different areas within Arizona. Spatial homogeneity among the four chronologies is evaluated by using digital filtering and correlation techniques. The chronologies are then normalized, averaged to form a state-wide series, and the values of state-wide growth for each year placed into one of nine equally probable classes. Similarly, seasonal temperatures and seasonal precipitation are placed into three equally probable classes and the joint occurrences between temperature and precipitation become nine climatic classes. Contingency tables are used to establish the joint occurrence of the nine climatic classes and the nine ring-width classes. A number of 10 and 20 year intervals since 1650 are identified as periods of unusually high or low probability of occurrence of above or below normal precipitation for any season of the year. The period 1880-1889 is of special interest as it was a period when downcutting was initiated in many Arizona streams and is also one of the periods in which the probability for below normal seasonal precipitation was unusually high (p = 0.48).
Keywords:
Dendrochronology; Tree Rings
ISSN:
0041-2198
Additional Links:
http://www.treeringsociety.org

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoen_USen_US
dc.titleConditional Probability of Occurrence for Variations in Climate Based on Width of Annual Tree-Rings in Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.authorStockton, Charles W.en_US
dc.contributor.authorFritts, Harold C.en_US
dc.contributor.departmentLaboratory of Tree-Ring Research, The University of Arizonaen_US
dc.date.issued1971-
dc.rightsCopyright © Tree-Ring Society. All rights reserved.en_US
dc.description.collectioninformationThis item is part of the Tree-Ring Research (formerly Tree-Ring Bulletin) archive. It was digitized from a physical copy provided by the Laboratory of Tree-Ring research at The University of Arizona. For more information about this peer-reviewed scholarly journal, please email the Editor of Tree-Ring Research at editor@treeringsociety.org.en_US
dc.publisherTree-Ring Societyen_US
dc.identifier.journalTree-Ring Bulletinen_US
dc.identifier.citationStockton, C.W., Fritts, H.C. 1971. Conditional probability of occurrence for variations in climate based on the width of annual tree rings in Arizona. Tree-Ring Bulletin 31:3-24.en_US
dc.description.abstractA method is presented for making probability statements about past climatic conditions for the state of Arizona given the corresponding relative width of tree rings. The probability statements about periods of extreme climate from 1650 to 1899 are based upon the joint occurrence of the state-wide average seasonal climate and ring widths during 1899-1957. The ring-width values used are index chronologies selected from four different areas within Arizona. Spatial homogeneity among the four chronologies is evaluated by using digital filtering and correlation techniques. The chronologies are then normalized, averaged to form a state-wide series, and the values of state-wide growth for each year placed into one of nine equally probable classes. Similarly, seasonal temperatures and seasonal precipitation are placed into three equally probable classes and the joint occurrences between temperature and precipitation become nine climatic classes. Contingency tables are used to establish the joint occurrence of the nine climatic classes and the nine ring-width classes. A number of 10 and 20 year intervals since 1650 are identified as periods of unusually high or low probability of occurrence of above or below normal precipitation for any season of the year. The period 1880-1889 is of special interest as it was a period when downcutting was initiated in many Arizona streams and is also one of the periods in which the probability for below normal seasonal precipitation was unusually high (p = 0.48).en_US
dc.subjectDendrochronologyen_US
dc.subjectTree Ringsen_US
dc.identifier.citationStockton, C.W., Fritts, H.C. 1971. Conditional probability of occurrence for variations in climate based on the width of annual tree rings in Arizona. Tree-Ring Bulletin 31:3-24.en_US
dc.identifier.issn0041-2198-
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/259995-
dc.identifier.journalTree-Ring Bulletinen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.relation.urlhttp://www.treeringsociety.orgen_US
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