EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF INPUT AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATIONS IN LARGE UNDER-INSTRUMENTED BASINS

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/195641
Title:
EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF INPUT AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATIONS IN LARGE UNDER-INSTRUMENTED BASINS
Author:
Demaria, Eleonora Maria
Issue Date:
2010
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Embargo:
Release after 2/16/2011
Abstract:
In data-poor regions around the world, particularly in less-privileged countries, hydrologists cannot always take advantage of available hydrological models to simulate a hydrological system due to the lack of reliable measurements of hydrological variables, in particular rainfall and streamflows, needed to implement and evaluate these models. Rainfall estimates obtained with remotely deployed sensors constitute an excellent source of precipitation for these basins, however they are prone to errors that can potentially affect hydrologic simulations. Concurrently, limited access to streamflow measurements does not allow a detailed representation of the system's structure through parameter estimation techniques. This dissertation presents multiple studies that evaluate the usefulness of remotely sensed products for different hydrological applications and the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to parameter uncertainty across basins with different hydroclimatic characteristics with the ultimate goal of increasing the applicability of land surface models in ungauged basins, particularly in South America. Paper 1 presents a sensitivity analysis of daily simulated streamflows to changes in model parameters along a hydroclimatic gradient. Parameters controlling the generation of surface and subsurface flow were targeted for the study. Results indicate that the sensitivity is strongly controlled by climate and that a more parsimonious version of the model could be implemented. Paper 2 explores how errors in satellite-estimated precipitation, due to infrequent satellite measurements, propagate through the simulation of a basin's hydrological cycle and impact the characteristics of peak streamflows within the basin. Findings indicate that nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle can introduce bias in simulated streamflows with error-corrupted precipitation. They also show that some characteristics of peak discharges are not conditioned by errors in satellite-estimated precipitation at a daily time step. Paper 3 evaluates the dominant sources of error in three satellite products when representing convective storms and how shifts in the location of the storm affect simulated peak streamflows in the basin. Results indicate that satellite products show some deficiencies retrieving convective processes and that a ground bias correction can mitigate these deficiencies but without sacrificing the potential for real-time hydrological applications. Finally, spatially shifted precipitation fields affect the magnitude of the peaks, however, its impact on the timing of the peaks is dampened out by the system's response at a daily time scale.
Type:
text; Electronic Dissertation
Keywords:
error propagation; la plata basin; land surface models; parameter uncertainty; satellite precipitation; streamflow simulations
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Hydrology; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Valdes, Juan B.
Committee Chair:
Valdes, Juan B.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.titleEVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF INPUT AND PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ON STREAMFLOW SIMULATIONS IN LARGE UNDER-INSTRUMENTED BASINSen_US
dc.creatorDemaria, Eleonora Mariaen_US
dc.contributor.authorDemaria, Eleonora Mariaen_US
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.releaseRelease after 2/16/2011-
dc.description.abstractIn data-poor regions around the world, particularly in less-privileged countries, hydrologists cannot always take advantage of available hydrological models to simulate a hydrological system due to the lack of reliable measurements of hydrological variables, in particular rainfall and streamflows, needed to implement and evaluate these models. Rainfall estimates obtained with remotely deployed sensors constitute an excellent source of precipitation for these basins, however they are prone to errors that can potentially affect hydrologic simulations. Concurrently, limited access to streamflow measurements does not allow a detailed representation of the system's structure through parameter estimation techniques. This dissertation presents multiple studies that evaluate the usefulness of remotely sensed products for different hydrological applications and the sensitivity of simulated streamflow to parameter uncertainty across basins with different hydroclimatic characteristics with the ultimate goal of increasing the applicability of land surface models in ungauged basins, particularly in South America. Paper 1 presents a sensitivity analysis of daily simulated streamflows to changes in model parameters along a hydroclimatic gradient. Parameters controlling the generation of surface and subsurface flow were targeted for the study. Results indicate that the sensitivity is strongly controlled by climate and that a more parsimonious version of the model could be implemented. Paper 2 explores how errors in satellite-estimated precipitation, due to infrequent satellite measurements, propagate through the simulation of a basin's hydrological cycle and impact the characteristics of peak streamflows within the basin. Findings indicate that nonlinearities in the hydrological cycle can introduce bias in simulated streamflows with error-corrupted precipitation. They also show that some characteristics of peak discharges are not conditioned by errors in satellite-estimated precipitation at a daily time step. Paper 3 evaluates the dominant sources of error in three satellite products when representing convective storms and how shifts in the location of the storm affect simulated peak streamflows in the basin. Results indicate that satellite products show some deficiencies retrieving convective processes and that a ground bias correction can mitigate these deficiencies but without sacrificing the potential for real-time hydrological applications. Finally, spatially shifted precipitation fields affect the magnitude of the peaks, however, its impact on the timing of the peaks is dampened out by the system's response at a daily time scale.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeElectronic Dissertationen_US
dc.subjecterror propagationen_US
dc.subjectla plata basinen_US
dc.subjectland surface modelsen_US
dc.subjectparameter uncertaintyen_US
dc.subjectsatellite precipitationen_US
dc.subjectstreamflow simulationsen_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHydrologyen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorValdes, Juan B.en_US
dc.contributor.chairValdes, Juan B.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberNijssen, Barten_US
dc.contributor.committeememberHirschboeck, Katherine K.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberGupta, Hoshinen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberMaddock, Thomas, IIIen_US
dc.identifier.proquest11003en_US
dc.identifier.oclc659754945en_US
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