THE ROLE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN OPERATIONAL WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/194261
Title:
THE ROLE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN OPERATIONAL WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
Author:
Pagano, Thomas Christopher
Issue Date:
2005
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
The single greatest uncertainty in seasonal water supply forecasts is the amount of precipitation falling after the forecast issue date. There has been a long history of attempting to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into operational water supply forecasts. The skill of these precipitation forecasts remains low especially compared to highly confident snow-based streamflow forecasts. Early in the season (e.g., September-December), however, large-scale climate indices are the best available predictors of future water supplies. This dissertation suggests practical methods for issuing climate-based operational streamflow forecasts.This study also documents the existence of strong decadal trends in water supply forecast skill. Across the Western US, 1 April forecast skill peaked in the 1960-1970s and has been on the decline more recently. The high skill period was a very calm period in the Western US, with a near absence of extreme (wet or dry) spring precipitation events. In contrast, the period after 1980 has had the most variable, persistent, and skewed spring and summer streamflows in the modern record. Spring precipitation is also now more variable than it has been since at least the 1930s. This rise in spring precipitation variability in the Colorado/Rio Grande Basins and the Pacific Northwest is the likely cause behind the recent decline in water supply forecast skill.
Type:
text; Electronic Dissertation
Keywords:
Water; Forecasting; El Nino; Climatology; Hydroclimatology
Degree Name:
DA
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Hydrology; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Sorooshian, Soroosh
Committee Chair:
Sorooshian, Soroosh

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoENen_US
dc.titleTHE ROLE OF CLIMATE VARIABILITY IN OPERATIONAL WATER SUPPLY FORECASTING FOR THE WESTERN UNITED STATESen_US
dc.creatorPagano, Thomas Christopheren_US
dc.contributor.authorPagano, Thomas Christopheren_US
dc.date.issued2005en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe single greatest uncertainty in seasonal water supply forecasts is the amount of precipitation falling after the forecast issue date. There has been a long history of attempting to incorporate seasonal climate forecasts into operational water supply forecasts. The skill of these precipitation forecasts remains low especially compared to highly confident snow-based streamflow forecasts. Early in the season (e.g., September-December), however, large-scale climate indices are the best available predictors of future water supplies. This dissertation suggests practical methods for issuing climate-based operational streamflow forecasts.This study also documents the existence of strong decadal trends in water supply forecast skill. Across the Western US, 1 April forecast skill peaked in the 1960-1970s and has been on the decline more recently. The high skill period was a very calm period in the Western US, with a near absence of extreme (wet or dry) spring precipitation events. In contrast, the period after 1980 has had the most variable, persistent, and skewed spring and summer streamflows in the modern record. Spring precipitation is also now more variable than it has been since at least the 1930s. This rise in spring precipitation variability in the Colorado/Rio Grande Basins and the Pacific Northwest is the likely cause behind the recent decline in water supply forecast skill.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeElectronic Dissertationen_US
dc.subjectWateren_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectEl Ninoen_US
dc.subjectClimatologyen_US
dc.subjectHydroclimatologyen_US
thesis.degree.nameDAen_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHydrologyen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorSorooshian, Sorooshen_US
dc.contributor.chairSorooshian, Sorooshen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberValdez, Juanen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberShuttleworth, Jamesen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberDavis, Donen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberMullen, Stevenen_US
dc.identifier.proquest1022en_US
dc.identifier.oclc137353541en_US
All Items in UA Campus Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.