Monte Carlo simulation of paleofloods: information content of paleoflood data in flood-frequency analysis

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/192129
Title:
Monte Carlo simulation of paleofloods: information content of paleoflood data in flood-frequency analysis
Author:
Blainey, Joan Brandon
Issue Date:
2000
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Paleoflood hydrology is a technique for assessing the magnitude and frequency of floods in bedrock canyons. I calculate effects of adding paleoflood data to gaging data on estimating low return-period quantiles using peak discharge sample statistics from a bedrock-constrained river, the Salt River near Chrysotile, Arizona, as representative of hydrologic conditions in the southwestern United States since the late-Holocene. A Monte Carlo method was used to randomly generate 5,000 realizations of a 4000-year annual flood series from a log-Pearson type III distribution. Using a censored model of paleoflood deposition, I fit the combined paleoflood and gaging data with the expected moments algorithm and calculated model bias and precision. Compared to gaging data alone, paleoflood information enhances low-frequency quantile estimation even when incorporating bias representing differences between peak flood stage and the associated deposit height. Even if only the largest flood in 4,000 years is known, paleoflood data significantly improves flood-frequency analysis.
Type:
Thesis-Reproduction (electronic); text
LCSH Subjects:
Hydrology.; Paleohydrology -- Computer simulation.; Monte Carlo method.
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Hydrology; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Baker, Victor R.; Webb, Robert H.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleMonte Carlo simulation of paleofloods: information content of paleoflood data in flood-frequency analysisen_US
dc.creatorBlainey, Joan Brandonen_US
dc.contributor.authorBlainey, Joan Brandonen_US
dc.date.issued2000en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractPaleoflood hydrology is a technique for assessing the magnitude and frequency of floods in bedrock canyons. I calculate effects of adding paleoflood data to gaging data on estimating low return-period quantiles using peak discharge sample statistics from a bedrock-constrained river, the Salt River near Chrysotile, Arizona, as representative of hydrologic conditions in the southwestern United States since the late-Holocene. A Monte Carlo method was used to randomly generate 5,000 realizations of a 4000-year annual flood series from a log-Pearson type III distribution. Using a censored model of paleoflood deposition, I fit the combined paleoflood and gaging data with the expected moments algorithm and calculated model bias and precision. Compared to gaging data alone, paleoflood information enhances low-frequency quantile estimation even when incorporating bias representing differences between peak flood stage and the associated deposit height. Even if only the largest flood in 4,000 years is known, paleoflood data significantly improves flood-frequency analysis.en_US
dc.description.notehydrology collectionen_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subject.lcshHydrology.en_US
dc.subject.lcshPaleohydrology -- Computer simulation.en_US
dc.subject.lcshMonte Carlo method.en_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHydrologyen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairBaker, Victor R.en_US
dc.contributor.chairWebb, Robert H.en_US
dc.identifier.oclc220952164en_US
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