Likelihood development for a probabilistic flash flood forecasting model

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/192077
Title:
Likelihood development for a probabilistic flash flood forecasting model
Author:
Keefer, Timothy Orrin.
Issue Date:
1993
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
An empirical method is developed for constructing likelihood functions required in a Bayesian probabilistic flash flood forecasting model using data on objective quantitative precipitation forecasts and their verification. Likelihoods based on categorical and probabilistic forecast information for several forecast periods, seasons, and locations are shown and compared. Data record length, forecast information type and magnitude, grid area, and discretized interval size are shown to affect probabilistic differentiation of amounts of potential rainfall. Use of these likelihoods in Bayes' Theorem to update prior probability distributions of potential rainfall, based on preliminary data, to posterior probability distributions, reflecting the latest forecast information, demonstrates that an abbreviated version of the flash flood forecasting methodology is currently practicable. For this application, likelihoods based on the categorical forecast are indicated. Apart from flash flood forecasting, it is shown that likelihoods can provide detailed insight into the value of information contained in particular forecast products.
Type:
Thesis-Reproduction (electronic); text
LCSH Subjects:
Hydrology.; Flood forecasting -- Mathematical models.; Probability forecasts (Meteorology)
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Hydrology and Water Resources; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Davis, Donald R.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleLikelihood development for a probabilistic flash flood forecasting modelen_US
dc.creatorKeefer, Timothy Orrin.en_US
dc.contributor.authorKeefer, Timothy Orrin.en_US
dc.date.issued1993en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractAn empirical method is developed for constructing likelihood functions required in a Bayesian probabilistic flash flood forecasting model using data on objective quantitative precipitation forecasts and their verification. Likelihoods based on categorical and probabilistic forecast information for several forecast periods, seasons, and locations are shown and compared. Data record length, forecast information type and magnitude, grid area, and discretized interval size are shown to affect probabilistic differentiation of amounts of potential rainfall. Use of these likelihoods in Bayes' Theorem to update prior probability distributions of potential rainfall, based on preliminary data, to posterior probability distributions, reflecting the latest forecast information, demonstrates that an abbreviated version of the flash flood forecasting methodology is currently practicable. For this application, likelihoods based on the categorical forecast are indicated. Apart from flash flood forecasting, it is shown that likelihoods can provide detailed insight into the value of information contained in particular forecast products.en_US
dc.description.notehydrology collectionen_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subject.lcshHydrology.en_US
dc.subject.lcshFlood forecasting -- Mathematical models.en_US
dc.subject.lcshProbability forecasts (Meteorology)en_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHydrology and Water Resourcesen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairDavis, Donald R.en_US
dc.identifier.oclc226969359en_US
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