Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191543
Title:
Decision under uncertainty applied to a hydrologic problem.
Author:
Dvoranchik, William Michael,1946-
Issue Date:
1971
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
This thesis provides a basis to evaluate the worth of additional information. A decision theoretic framework is employed to help delineate the components of the decision process. Design modifications of a specific problem are the variables that cause a change in the evaluation of the worth of additional information, but the design Chosen is based on the minimum Bayes risk when the structure is finally built. The hydrologic problem involves the annual peak flows for a river and their effect on the design problem. The process presented takes a great amount of uncertainty from the question, "Do I have enough data on which to base a good decision?" Assignment of a dollar value to the worth of an additional data point tells the decision maker what he can expect to gain by waiting an extra time period for that data point based on knowledge possessed at the present time.
Type:
Thesis-Reproduction (electronic); text
LCSH Subjects:
Hydrology.; Decision making.
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Systems Engineering; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Duckstein, Lucien

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleDecision under uncertainty applied to a hydrologic problem.en_US
dc.creatorDvoranchik, William Michael,1946-en_US
dc.contributor.authorDvoranchik, William Michael,1946-en_US
dc.date.issued1971en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractThis thesis provides a basis to evaluate the worth of additional information. A decision theoretic framework is employed to help delineate the components of the decision process. Design modifications of a specific problem are the variables that cause a change in the evaluation of the worth of additional information, but the design Chosen is based on the minimum Bayes risk when the structure is finally built. The hydrologic problem involves the annual peak flows for a river and their effect on the design problem. The process presented takes a great amount of uncertainty from the question, "Do I have enough data on which to base a good decision?" Assignment of a dollar value to the worth of an additional data point tells the decision maker what he can expect to gain by waiting an extra time period for that data point based on knowledge possessed at the present time.en_US
dc.description.notehydrology collectionen_US
dc.typeThesis-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subject.lcshHydrology.en_US
dc.subject.lcshDecision making.en_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairDuckstein, Lucienen_US
dc.identifier.oclc213097976en_US
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