A strategy for decision making in water resources planning for developing countries

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/191052
Title:
A strategy for decision making in water resources planning for developing countries
Author:
Oben-Nyarko, Kwabena.
Issue Date:
1979
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Lack of adequate hydrologic information has been one of the major reasons for postponement of many water resource developments in developing countries. Many of these decisions to postpone developments that have been reviewed by the author have been found to be arbitrary and not based on the extent of benefit that the additional information would contribute. Due to lack of understanding of the implications and natural tendency towards risk aversion, the beneficiaries are deprived of goods and services which the development would have produced. In this dissertation a decision strategy which can guide decision makers to determine if the additional information is essential, is developed. The strategy is derived from the concepts of the three currently used decision methodologies in water resources: namely, the cost-effectiveness, benefit-cost and the Bayesian decision methodologies. The concepts of these methodologies have been selected and combined for their appropriateness to particular phases of the decision process. Description of the analytical procedure in the use of the strategy is given, and some analytical methods that can be used in the procedure have also been suggested and discussed. The applicability of the strategy is demonstrated by applying it to a case study involving a decision that was taken to postpone a simple irrigation project in Ghana. Three alternative plans for the irrigation project were evaluated, based on selected decision criteria. The results of the study indicated that the local hydrologic factors in the project analyzed were not critical to the design decision, and errors due to hydrologic uncertainties would be damped out in the evaluation of the economic feasibility. The design decision proved to be more sensitive to the economic and technological factors. The insensitivity of the design decision to the hydrologic factors was attributed to a combination of climatic and topographical conditions existing in the river basin. Based on the results of the study, a rule was suggested to aid decision makers to determine when a greater hydrologic base may be needed for design and project viability decisions.
Type:
Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic); text
Keywords:
Hydrology.; Water resources development -- Decision making.; Water resources development -- Developing countries.
Degree Name:
Ph. D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Civil Engineering and Engineering Mechanics; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Ince, Simon

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleA strategy for decision making in water resources planning for developing countriesen_US
dc.creatorOben-Nyarko, Kwabena.en_US
dc.contributor.authorOben-Nyarko, Kwabena.en_US
dc.date.issued1979en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractLack of adequate hydrologic information has been one of the major reasons for postponement of many water resource developments in developing countries. Many of these decisions to postpone developments that have been reviewed by the author have been found to be arbitrary and not based on the extent of benefit that the additional information would contribute. Due to lack of understanding of the implications and natural tendency towards risk aversion, the beneficiaries are deprived of goods and services which the development would have produced. In this dissertation a decision strategy which can guide decision makers to determine if the additional information is essential, is developed. The strategy is derived from the concepts of the three currently used decision methodologies in water resources: namely, the cost-effectiveness, benefit-cost and the Bayesian decision methodologies. The concepts of these methodologies have been selected and combined for their appropriateness to particular phases of the decision process. Description of the analytical procedure in the use of the strategy is given, and some analytical methods that can be used in the procedure have also been suggested and discussed. The applicability of the strategy is demonstrated by applying it to a case study involving a decision that was taken to postpone a simple irrigation project in Ghana. Three alternative plans for the irrigation project were evaluated, based on selected decision criteria. The results of the study indicated that the local hydrologic factors in the project analyzed were not critical to the design decision, and errors due to hydrologic uncertainties would be damped out in the evaluation of the economic feasibility. The design decision proved to be more sensitive to the economic and technological factors. The insensitivity of the design decision to the hydrologic factors was attributed to a combination of climatic and topographical conditions existing in the river basin. Based on the results of the study, a rule was suggested to aid decision makers to determine when a greater hydrologic base may be needed for design and project viability decisions.en_US
dc.description.notehydrology collectionen_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subjectHydrology.en_US
dc.subjectWater resources development -- Decision making.en_US
dc.subjectWater resources development -- Developing countries.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineCivil Engineering and Engineering Mechanicsen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairInce, Simonen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberDavis, Donald R.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberLaursen, Emmett M.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberDeCook, K. Jamesen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberGum, Russell L.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberMatlock, William Geralden_US
dc.identifier.oclc213274142en_US
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