Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/190976
Title:
Decision making under uncertainty in systems hydrology.
Author:
Davis, Donald Ross,1932-
Issue Date:
1971
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Design of engineering projects involve a certain amount of uncertainty. How should design decisions be taken in face of the uncertainty? What is the most efficient way of handling the data? Decision theory can provide useful answers to these questions. The literature review shows that decision theory is a fairly well developed decision method, with almost no application in hydrology. The steps of decision theoretic analysis are given. They are augmented by the concept of expected expected opportunity loss, which is developed as a means of measuring the expected value of additional data before they are received. The method is applied to the design of bridge piers and flood levees for Rillito Creek, Pima County, Arizona. Uncertainty in both the mean and the variance of the logarithms of the peak flows of Rillito Creek is taken into account. Also shown are decision theoretic methods for: 1) handling secondary data, such as obtained from a regression relation, 2) evaluating the effect of the use of nonsufficient statistics, 3) considering alternate models and 4) regionalizing data. It is concluded that decision theory provides a rational structure for making design decisions and for the associated data collection and handling problems.
Type:
Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic); text
Keywords:
Hydrology.; Hydrology -- Mathematical models.; Hydrological forecasting.; Decision making.; Systems engineering.; Bridges -- Design and construction.; Levees.
Degree Name:
Ph. D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Systems Engineering; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Duckstein, Lucien

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleDecision making under uncertainty in systems hydrology.en_US
dc.creatorDavis, Donald Ross,1932-en_US
dc.contributor.authorDavis, Donald Ross,1932-en_US
dc.date.issued1971en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractDesign of engineering projects involve a certain amount of uncertainty. How should design decisions be taken in face of the uncertainty? What is the most efficient way of handling the data? Decision theory can provide useful answers to these questions. The literature review shows that decision theory is a fairly well developed decision method, with almost no application in hydrology. The steps of decision theoretic analysis are given. They are augmented by the concept of expected expected opportunity loss, which is developed as a means of measuring the expected value of additional data before they are received. The method is applied to the design of bridge piers and flood levees for Rillito Creek, Pima County, Arizona. Uncertainty in both the mean and the variance of the logarithms of the peak flows of Rillito Creek is taken into account. Also shown are decision theoretic methods for: 1) handling secondary data, such as obtained from a regression relation, 2) evaluating the effect of the use of nonsufficient statistics, 3) considering alternate models and 4) regionalizing data. It is concluded that decision theory provides a rational structure for making design decisions and for the associated data collection and handling problems.en_US
dc.description.notehydrology collectionen_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subjectHydrology.en_US
dc.subjectHydrology -- Mathematical models.en_US
dc.subjectHydrological forecasting.en_US
dc.subjectDecision making.en_US
dc.subjectSystems engineering.en_US
dc.subjectBridges -- Design and construction.en_US
dc.subjectLevees.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh. D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairDuckstein, Lucienen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberCushing, Jimen_US
dc.identifier.oclc213098782en_US
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