THEORY AND PRACTICE OF THE INTENSITY OF USE METHOD OF MINERAL CONSUMPTION FORECASTING (MINERAL, ECONOMICS).

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/187962
Title:
THEORY AND PRACTICE OF THE INTENSITY OF USE METHOD OF MINERAL CONSUMPTION FORECASTING (MINERAL, ECONOMICS).
Author:
ROBERTS, MARK CULMER.
Issue Date:
1985
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
The intensity of use of a mineral is traditionally defined as the consumption (production plus net imports) of the mineral divided by gross national product. It has been proposed that this ratio of raw material input to gross economic output is a predictable function of per capita income and that the relationship is based on economic theory. Though the theory has never been clearly defined, the intensity of use method has been used to make long term forecasts. This dissertation formulates a theoretical model of the consumption of minerals and the resulting intensity of use which is used to test the validity of the traditional intensity of use measure and its forecasting ability. Previous justifications of the intensity of use hypothesis state that changes in technical efficiency, substitution rates among inputs, and demands are explained by per capita income, which, as it grows, produces a regular intensity of use pattern. The model developed in this research shows that the life of the goods in use, foreign trade of raw and final goods, prices, consumer preferences, technical innovations, as well as the above factors fully explain economic use, which is not simply a function of per capita income. The complete model is used to restate the traditional theory of intensity of use and to examine the sensitivity of traditional measures to changes in the explanatory variables which are commonly omitted. The full model demonstrates the parameters that must be examined when making a long term forecast. Regular intensity of use patterns are observed for many minerals in many nations. Setting aside the theoretical questions, the intensity of use method is often used to make long term projections based on these trends in intensity of use as well as the trends in population and gross national product. This dissertation examines the forecasting ability of the traditional intensity of use method and finds that it is not necessarily an improvement over naive consumption time trend forecasts. Furthermore, it is unstable for very long term projections.
Type:
text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Mines and mineral resources -- Economic aspects.; Mines and mineral resources -- Forecasting.
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Mining and Geological Engineering; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Harris, DeVerle

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleTHEORY AND PRACTICE OF THE INTENSITY OF USE METHOD OF MINERAL CONSUMPTION FORECASTING (MINERAL, ECONOMICS).en_US
dc.creatorROBERTS, MARK CULMER.en_US
dc.contributor.authorROBERTS, MARK CULMER.en_US
dc.date.issued1985en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe intensity of use of a mineral is traditionally defined as the consumption (production plus net imports) of the mineral divided by gross national product. It has been proposed that this ratio of raw material input to gross economic output is a predictable function of per capita income and that the relationship is based on economic theory. Though the theory has never been clearly defined, the intensity of use method has been used to make long term forecasts. This dissertation formulates a theoretical model of the consumption of minerals and the resulting intensity of use which is used to test the validity of the traditional intensity of use measure and its forecasting ability. Previous justifications of the intensity of use hypothesis state that changes in technical efficiency, substitution rates among inputs, and demands are explained by per capita income, which, as it grows, produces a regular intensity of use pattern. The model developed in this research shows that the life of the goods in use, foreign trade of raw and final goods, prices, consumer preferences, technical innovations, as well as the above factors fully explain economic use, which is not simply a function of per capita income. The complete model is used to restate the traditional theory of intensity of use and to examine the sensitivity of traditional measures to changes in the explanatory variables which are commonly omitted. The full model demonstrates the parameters that must be examined when making a long term forecast. Regular intensity of use patterns are observed for many minerals in many nations. Setting aside the theoretical questions, the intensity of use method is often used to make long term projections based on these trends in intensity of use as well as the trends in population and gross national product. This dissertation examines the forecasting ability of the traditional intensity of use method and finds that it is not necessarily an improvement over naive consumption time trend forecasts. Furthermore, it is unstable for very long term projections.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectMines and mineral resources -- Economic aspects.en_US
dc.subjectMines and mineral resources -- Forecasting.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineMining and Geological Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorHarris, DeVerleen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberRieber, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberNewcomb, Richarden_US
dc.identifier.proquest8514920en_US
dc.identifier.oclc693616400en_US
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