Conflict analysis under climatic uncertainties: The upper Rio Grande basin.

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/187489
Title:
Conflict analysis under climatic uncertainties: The upper Rio Grande basin.
Author:
Bella, Aimee Adjoua.
Issue Date:
1996
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Conflict analysis and game theory models are applied to a case study in the upper Rio Grande river basin. The objective is to find which theory best describes past developments in the Rio Grande river basin and the status quo of water use strategies employed by the players (decision makers). By assuming that these past properties will propagate in the future, the preferable change in the equilibrium solution is derived under climate fluctuation, coupled with future population growth scenarios. Past and future Rio Grande resource allocation conflicts are analyzed using (1) multicriterion decision making (MCDM) techniques, such as distance based approach of compromise programming and outranking technique of the ELECTRE family and (2) voting scheme approach of game theory. MCDM and game theory model cases are classified according to the following categories: 1. If decision makers consider each other payoff or if an authority above forces them to consider each other's payoffs, then the conflict analysis problem is a multiactor/ multiobjective problem. 2. If decision makers only care about their own payoff and not what other players payoff are, then the conflict analysis problem is described and solved by game theoretic models. Fifteen decision makers from the Rio Grande water allocation and water management conflict are used as an example to present the different approaches to conflict modeling. From the MCDM techniques used, namely the compromise programming of distance-based approach and the ELECTRE family of outranking relation, the former method stands out as being the most flexible and comprehensive methodology. Though these two methods are conceptually different, for this case study, both methods give approximately the same results. For the game theory analysis, the special voting scheme stands out as being the preferred approach because it better reflects the decision maker's preference and it also is easy to implement and apply. Finally, the climate change scenarios are considered, the 1XCO₂ and the 2XCO₂. Results obtained from these two scenarios indicate the Rio Grande river will face extreme water shortages that will require the development of a different set of water release rules.
Type:
text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Multiple criteria decision making.; Game theory.; Water resources development -- Rio Grande -- Decision making.; Hydrology.
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Systems and Industrial Engineering; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Committee Chair:
Duckstein, Lucien

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleConflict analysis under climatic uncertainties: The upper Rio Grande basin.en_US
dc.creatorBella, Aimee Adjoua.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBella, Aimee Adjoua.en_US
dc.date.issued1996en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractConflict analysis and game theory models are applied to a case study in the upper Rio Grande river basin. The objective is to find which theory best describes past developments in the Rio Grande river basin and the status quo of water use strategies employed by the players (decision makers). By assuming that these past properties will propagate in the future, the preferable change in the equilibrium solution is derived under climate fluctuation, coupled with future population growth scenarios. Past and future Rio Grande resource allocation conflicts are analyzed using (1) multicriterion decision making (MCDM) techniques, such as distance based approach of compromise programming and outranking technique of the ELECTRE family and (2) voting scheme approach of game theory. MCDM and game theory model cases are classified according to the following categories: 1. If decision makers consider each other payoff or if an authority above forces them to consider each other's payoffs, then the conflict analysis problem is a multiactor/ multiobjective problem. 2. If decision makers only care about their own payoff and not what other players payoff are, then the conflict analysis problem is described and solved by game theoretic models. Fifteen decision makers from the Rio Grande water allocation and water management conflict are used as an example to present the different approaches to conflict modeling. From the MCDM techniques used, namely the compromise programming of distance-based approach and the ELECTRE family of outranking relation, the former method stands out as being the most flexible and comprehensive methodology. Though these two methods are conceptually different, for this case study, both methods give approximately the same results. For the game theory analysis, the special voting scheme stands out as being the preferred approach because it better reflects the decision maker's preference and it also is easy to implement and apply. Finally, the climate change scenarios are considered, the 1XCO₂ and the 2XCO₂. Results obtained from these two scenarios indicate the Rio Grande river will face extreme water shortages that will require the development of a different set of water release rules.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectMultiple criteria decision making.en_US
dc.subjectGame theory.en_US
dc.subjectWater resources development -- Rio Grande -- Decision making.en_US
dc.subjectHydrology.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineSystems and Industrial Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.chairDuckstein, Lucienen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberSzidarovszky, Ferencen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberBahill, Terryen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberDavis, Donalden_US
dc.identifier.proquest9626520en_US
dc.identifier.oclc708268896en_US
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