Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185636
Title:
Transition in the world primary copper industry, 1975-1990.
Author:
Shelnutt, John Paul.
Issue Date:
1991
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
The competitive outlook for the U.S. copper industry was seriously questioned in the mid-1980's in light of differential wages, reserve bases, environmental enforcement, and comparable rates of technical dissemination among country producers. These concerns coincided with the displacement of U.S. output by Chilean expansion and ascendancy of the latter to the number one ranking of world producers. Explanations for U.S. competitive decline ranged from the availability of international agency credit lines for competing state-run copper producers to labor-management relations in the U.S. This dissertation examines the timing of Chilean emergence and U.S. response in relation to flexible exchange rates and monetary policy regimes of the 1980's. Previous analyses of world and North American market structure and change focused on market imperfections on the supply side or supply and stock influences in major demand centers. Earlier speculations about Chilean expansion have proved correct, but U.S. capacity displacement appears to be limited. This dissertation examines the effectiveness of earlier models when updated to the 1980's, redefines structure to achieve better fits, and tests the new model with simulations of quantity and price. World monetary policy, debt, and developing country trade policies have changed dramatically since the late 1970's. These changes together with earlier nationalization initiatives have injected significant new questions of commodity price translation and traded versus nontraded goods substitution into analyses of market behavior. The analysis developed and described in this research shows that real exchange rates of specified copper-producing countries are a significant factor in output expansion and market share gains under conditions of stable labor agreements and monetary policy. These components serve to explain how producer share gains such as for Chile were achieved during cyclical low price periods and historically high refined consumer stock conditions. Additional explanatory power is given for U.S. import and export activity in refined copper. Qualifications are given for selected producing countries that are experiencing continued output decline in the wake of Chilean-U.S. competition. The simulation results show an improvement in forecasting ability over previous models for selected country mine production, including Chile, and import-export activity for the U.S. Comparable high quality results are generated for copper price using standard model configuration. Significant errors remain, as in the overestimation of U.S. mine production recovery due to the lack of better measures of production and investment cycles in the primary copper industry. Downsizing of new or rebuilt U.S. capacity through technical shift is also not captured.
Type:
text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic)
Keywords:
Copper industry and trade -- Chile -- Econometric models; Copper industry and trade -- United States -- Econometric models; Copper -- Prices -- Econometric models.
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Mining and Geological Engineering; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Newcomb, Richard T.
Committee Chair:
Newcomb, Richard T.

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleTransition in the world primary copper industry, 1975-1990.en_US
dc.creatorShelnutt, John Paul.en_US
dc.contributor.authorShelnutt, John Paul.en_US
dc.date.issued1991en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractThe competitive outlook for the U.S. copper industry was seriously questioned in the mid-1980's in light of differential wages, reserve bases, environmental enforcement, and comparable rates of technical dissemination among country producers. These concerns coincided with the displacement of U.S. output by Chilean expansion and ascendancy of the latter to the number one ranking of world producers. Explanations for U.S. competitive decline ranged from the availability of international agency credit lines for competing state-run copper producers to labor-management relations in the U.S. This dissertation examines the timing of Chilean emergence and U.S. response in relation to flexible exchange rates and monetary policy regimes of the 1980's. Previous analyses of world and North American market structure and change focused on market imperfections on the supply side or supply and stock influences in major demand centers. Earlier speculations about Chilean expansion have proved correct, but U.S. capacity displacement appears to be limited. This dissertation examines the effectiveness of earlier models when updated to the 1980's, redefines structure to achieve better fits, and tests the new model with simulations of quantity and price. World monetary policy, debt, and developing country trade policies have changed dramatically since the late 1970's. These changes together with earlier nationalization initiatives have injected significant new questions of commodity price translation and traded versus nontraded goods substitution into analyses of market behavior. The analysis developed and described in this research shows that real exchange rates of specified copper-producing countries are a significant factor in output expansion and market share gains under conditions of stable labor agreements and monetary policy. These components serve to explain how producer share gains such as for Chile were achieved during cyclical low price periods and historically high refined consumer stock conditions. Additional explanatory power is given for U.S. import and export activity in refined copper. Qualifications are given for selected producing countries that are experiencing continued output decline in the wake of Chilean-U.S. competition. The simulation results show an improvement in forecasting ability over previous models for selected country mine production, including Chile, and import-export activity for the U.S. Comparable high quality results are generated for copper price using standard model configuration. Significant errors remain, as in the overestimation of U.S. mine production recovery due to the lack of better measures of production and investment cycles in the primary copper industry. Downsizing of new or rebuilt U.S. capacity through technical shift is also not captured.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
dc.subjectCopper industry and trade -- Chile -- Econometric modelsen_US
dc.subjectCopper industry and trade -- United States -- Econometric modelsen_US
dc.subjectCopper -- Prices -- Econometric models.en_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineMining and Geological Engineeringen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorNewcomb, Richard T.en_US
dc.contributor.chairNewcomb, Richard T.en_US
dc.contributor.committeememberRieber, Michaelen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberHarris, DeVerleen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberHiskey, Brenten_US
dc.contributor.committeememberReynolds, Stanleyen_US
dc.identifier.proquest9208035en_US
dc.identifier.oclc701727032en_US
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