Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184963
Title:
Strategic management and the perception of order.
Author:
Bukszar, Edward William, Jr.
Issue Date:
1990
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Retrospective sense-making produces a perception of a world more orderly than it is. In retrospect we recall the actual outcome of a situation as more predictable than it really seemed in prospect. Thus, we see outcomes as unsurprising, as relatively predictable before hand. A key question, and the one which is the central focus of this paper, is, what effect does this inflated perception of order have on strategic management? Three studies presented here suggest that: (1) Knowing eventual outcomes often distorts later reevaluations of initial decisions. Advanced strategy students analyzing a complex business case were unable to ignore information concerning the outcome of decisions made in the case and systematically distorted their evaluations of initial decisions and projections for the future. (2) Access to environmental history and comparative feedback may impede performance by leading decision makers to expect the future to be more predictable than it is. These factors led to persistent poor performance in a dynamic resource allocation task. (3) Remedial efforts aimed at correcting the bias should focus on cognitive factors to a greater degree than motivational factors. Large and equal hindsight shifts were produced in two groups of students by presenting outcomes as either "real" or as the result of a coin flip, which appears to weaken a self-flattery explanation of hindsight shift and give support to a cognitive account. Research and practical implications are suggested.
Type:
text; Dissertation-Reproduction (electronic)
Degree Name:
Ph.D.
Degree Level:
doctoral
Degree Program:
Business Administration; Graduate College
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Connolly, Terry

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleStrategic management and the perception of order.en_US
dc.creatorBukszar, Edward William, Jr.en_US
dc.contributor.authorBukszar, Edward William, Jr.en_US
dc.date.issued1990en_US
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractRetrospective sense-making produces a perception of a world more orderly than it is. In retrospect we recall the actual outcome of a situation as more predictable than it really seemed in prospect. Thus, we see outcomes as unsurprising, as relatively predictable before hand. A key question, and the one which is the central focus of this paper, is, what effect does this inflated perception of order have on strategic management? Three studies presented here suggest that: (1) Knowing eventual outcomes often distorts later reevaluations of initial decisions. Advanced strategy students analyzing a complex business case were unable to ignore information concerning the outcome of decisions made in the case and systematically distorted their evaluations of initial decisions and projections for the future. (2) Access to environmental history and comparative feedback may impede performance by leading decision makers to expect the future to be more predictable than it is. These factors led to persistent poor performance in a dynamic resource allocation task. (3) Remedial efforts aimed at correcting the bias should focus on cognitive factors to a greater degree than motivational factors. Large and equal hindsight shifts were produced in two groups of students by presenting outcomes as either "real" or as the result of a coin flip, which appears to weaken a self-flattery explanation of hindsight shift and give support to a cognitive account. Research and practical implications are suggested.en_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.typeDissertation-Reproduction (electronic)en_US
thesis.degree.namePh.D.en_US
thesis.degree.leveldoctoralen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineBusiness Administrationen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorConnolly, Terryen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberLogan, Jamesen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberBurns, Lawton R.en_US
dc.identifier.proquest9022101en_US
dc.identifier.oclc703632400en_US
All Items in UA Campus Repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.