An Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Mid-Range Streamflow Predictive Capacity in Four Lower Colorado River Sub-Basins

Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/144578
Title:
An Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Mid-Range Streamflow Predictive Capacity in Four Lower Colorado River Sub-Basins
Author:
Lambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringa
Issue Date:
2011
Publisher:
The University of Arizona.
Rights:
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.
Abstract:
Historical changes in hydroclimatic characteristics in four Lower Colorado River sub-basins are examined using the Mann-Kendall test for trends and Kendall's tau-b test for statistical association to better understand the processes taking place in these arid watersheds. During the historical record of 1906-2007, in general, temperatures have increased and streamflows have decreased while there has been no change in precipitation. Streamflow was found to have statistical association with annual maximum temperatures, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using this knowledge, two-year and five-year streamflow predictions are made using climate data to force a statistical model. We find no predictive skill at the two-year range but significant (alpha =.05) predictive skill in two of the basins at the five-year range. The dominant climate predictor for the Paria River Basin is ENSO and for the Little Colorado River Basin it is temperature.
Type:
Electronic Thesis; text
Keywords:
Colorado River; Hydroclimatic Trends; Mann-Kendall; Sea Surface; Temperatures; Southwest; Streamflow Prediction
Degree Name:
M.S.
Degree Level:
masters
Degree Program:
Graduate College; Hydrology
Degree Grantor:
University of Arizona
Advisor:
Troch, Peter A

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.titleAn Assessment of Hydroclimatic Trends and Mid-Range Streamflow Predictive Capacity in Four Lower Colorado River Sub-Basinsen_US
dc.creatorLambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringaen_US
dc.contributor.authorLambeth-Beagles, Rachel Syringaen_US
dc.date.issued2011-
dc.publisherThe University of Arizona.en_US
dc.rightsCopyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction or presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.en_US
dc.description.abstractHistorical changes in hydroclimatic characteristics in four Lower Colorado River sub-basins are examined using the Mann-Kendall test for trends and Kendall's tau-b test for statistical association to better understand the processes taking place in these arid watersheds. During the historical record of 1906-2007, in general, temperatures have increased and streamflows have decreased while there has been no change in precipitation. Streamflow was found to have statistical association with annual maximum temperatures, El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Using this knowledge, two-year and five-year streamflow predictions are made using climate data to force a statistical model. We find no predictive skill at the two-year range but significant (alpha =.05) predictive skill in two of the basins at the five-year range. The dominant climate predictor for the Paria River Basin is ENSO and for the Little Colorado River Basin it is temperature.en_US
dc.typeElectronic Thesisen_US
dc.typetexten_US
dc.subjectColorado Riveren_US
dc.subjectHydroclimatic Trendsen_US
dc.subjectMann-Kendallen_US
dc.subjectSea Surfaceen_US
dc.subjectTemperaturesen_US
dc.subjectSouthwesten_US
dc.subjectStreamflow Predictionen_US
thesis.degree.nameM.S.en_US
thesis.degree.levelmastersen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineGraduate Collegeen_US
thesis.degree.disciplineHydrologyen_US
thesis.degree.grantorUniversity of Arizonaen_US
dc.contributor.advisorTroch, Peter Aen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberGarfin, Greggen_US
dc.contributor.committeememberGupta, Hoshin Ven_US
dc.identifier.proquest11614-
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