Persistent Link:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/105768
Title:
Science Foresight Project
Author:
Katz, J. Sylvan; Stewart, Sally
Citation:
Science Foresight Project 2002-03,
Issue Date:
Mar-2002
URI:
http://hdl.handle.net/10150/105768
Submitted date:
2002-07-29
Abstract:
The aim of the Science Foresight Project was to design and assess a simple, objective and cost-effective technique to gather information about emerging short and long-term research developments, primarily in the physical and engineering sciences. International experts were objectively chosen using co-citation patterns in scientific and technical literature, and were invited to submit their predictions about emerging developments in their research fields. They were questioned about how the effects of various factors and driving forces might affect their predictions. The cost and time required to administer the questionnaire and collect the responses was minimised through the use of Internet and Web based technologies. A simple process was used to report the predictions; short excerpts from each prediction were used as the summary and each prediction was classified into one of ten categories of emerging developments. Authors from 114 papers (23.7%) responded, identifying a total of 190 short-term and 111 long-term predicted emerging developments. Expert responses were received from an international group of senior researchers between the ages of 36 and 55, mostly engaged in basic research in academic institutions. Some experts described specific emerging developments, some discussed broad emerging trends in their field and others described both. Emerging development categories such as Atomic & Stellar Matter, Biology & Biosphere, Biomedical & Clinical, Computers & Robotics and Genomics & Proteomics were closely aligned with conventional science areas while other categories such as Mathematical & Computational and Nano Science & Technology contained predictions from almost every area of science. The technique developed and applied here appears to constitute an efficient means of surveying the international research community in order to gain insights into common patterns that evolve from their collective research activities. Dynamically monitoring emerging research developments on a continuous basis could provide valuable information to policy makers, planners and researchers.
Type:
Report
Language:
en
Keywords:
Knowledge Organization; Co-citation Analysis; Data Mining; Bibliometrics; Science Technology Studies; Research Methods

Full metadata record

DC FieldValue Language
dc.contributor.authorKatz, J. Sylvanen_US
dc.contributor.authorStewart, Sallyen_US
dc.date.accessioned2002-07-29T00:00:01Z-
dc.date.available2010-06-18T23:34:04Z-
dc.date.issued2002-03en_US
dc.date.submitted2002-07-29en_US
dc.identifier.citationScience Foresight Project 2002-03,en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10150/105768-
dc.description.abstractThe aim of the Science Foresight Project was to design and assess a simple, objective and cost-effective technique to gather information about emerging short and long-term research developments, primarily in the physical and engineering sciences. International experts were objectively chosen using co-citation patterns in scientific and technical literature, and were invited to submit their predictions about emerging developments in their research fields. They were questioned about how the effects of various factors and driving forces might affect their predictions. The cost and time required to administer the questionnaire and collect the responses was minimised through the use of Internet and Web based technologies. A simple process was used to report the predictions; short excerpts from each prediction were used as the summary and each prediction was classified into one of ten categories of emerging developments. Authors from 114 papers (23.7%) responded, identifying a total of 190 short-term and 111 long-term predicted emerging developments. Expert responses were received from an international group of senior researchers between the ages of 36 and 55, mostly engaged in basic research in academic institutions. Some experts described specific emerging developments, some discussed broad emerging trends in their field and others described both. Emerging development categories such as Atomic & Stellar Matter, Biology & Biosphere, Biomedical & Clinical, Computers & Robotics and Genomics & Proteomics were closely aligned with conventional science areas while other categories such as Mathematical & Computational and Nano Science & Technology contained predictions from almost every area of science. The technique developed and applied here appears to constitute an efficient means of surveying the international research community in order to gain insights into common patterns that evolve from their collective research activities. Dynamically monitoring emerging research developments on a continuous basis could provide valuable information to policy makers, planners and researchers.en_US
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdfen_US
dc.language.isoenen_US
dc.subjectKnowledge Organizationen_US
dc.subjectCo-citation Analysisen_US
dc.subjectData Miningen_US
dc.subjectBibliometricsen_US
dc.subjectScience Technology Studiesen_US
dc.subjectResearch Methodsen_US
dc.titleScience Foresight Projecten_US
dc.typeReporten_US
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